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The TRUTH About Sports Betting! Watch this before you place another bet.



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want to know the truth about sports

betting we'll watch this video to find

out before you place another bet

welcome to sports betting truth where it

is my goal to bring you actual sports

betting advice without the touting

shilling hype or false promises I'm

gonna get right to it what is the number

one overall truth of sports betting well

I'll ask you a question what percentage

of people do you think lose money in the

long run betting on sports 25 percent 50

percent well what if I told you that 99%

of people lose money in the long run

betting on sports at least 99% probably

closer to ninety nine point five ninety

nine point six percent of people lose

money in the long run betting on sports

that's the cold hard truth of sports

betting that is the number one truth of

sports betting everyone thinks though

that they're the exception to the rule

well I make money huh really be honest

with yourself do you really make money

betting on sports be honest do you track

all your bet to know how much money you

have going in and out do you know your

cash flow if you're still making money

congratulations you're part of the top

1% of people who make money betting on

sports but I guarantee you 99% of you

who say you make money betting on sports

are lying because that's that's the

reality the average person does not

stand a snowball's chance in hell of

making money betting on sports that's

just the facts but that's the thing the

dream is sold the dream is sold the

dream is sold to any average Joe who

likes sports or has sports knowledge or

who likes to watch sports can easily

make money on the side betting on sports

it's that easy if you have a little bit

of sports knowledge if you watch a lot

of sports and it's easy right that's the

dream the dream is sold by sports books

by casinos by the media the dream is

sold but the reality says otherwise some

some people even sell the dream that you

can quit your day job and just make

money by betting on sports alone it's

sold to something that easy but the

reality is sports betting is a lot

harder than it sounds you have to hit

fifty 2.4 percent of your bets at minus

1/10 juice to break even to break even

but flipping a coin

well when you fifty

at a time so how hard can achieving that

extra 2.4 percent be I mean it can't be

that hard right well actually that 2.4

percent is a lot harder than it sounds

and that's just to break even that is

just to not lose money no I'm not saying

I am NOT saying you can't win money on

the short run I'm not saying you can't

go take a weekend trip to Las Vegas and

come out ahead betting on sports it's

absolutely possible it's absolutely

doable

you have casino games with hard house

edges that are impossible to beat in the

long run that you can come out ahead in

a short period of time with you can go

sit down at a roulette table for 5 hours

despite the 3.2 or 6.1 percent house

edge is depending on how many zeros are

on the wheel you can sit down at a

roulette table 4 5 6 7 hours or an

entire weekend and come out ahead

betting on roulette it's absolutely

possible I'm not saying you can't win

money in the medium run

you can bet NFL for an entire season or

any other sport without any kind of

hard-coded strategy and come out ahead

it's absolutely possible I'm not saying

you can't win money in the short or

medium run I am talking about the long

run here over time 99% of people will be

ground into powder by either the juice

or just by being beat by the books

that's just the reality most people do

not stand a chance betting on sports

despite the dream being sold that it's

easy which brings me in a sports betting

truth number two and that is sports

betting is hard I don't think people

understand the amount of time the amount

of effort the amount of dedication the

amount of hard work the amount of

discipline the amount of attention to

detail it actually requires to make

money in the long run betting on sports

there is no get-rich-quick schemes here

in sports betting there are no shortcuts

there are no easy streets in order to

actually turn a long-term profit betting

on sports it takes more time than you

would imagine it takes more work than

you would imagine if you want to profit

long term it is pretty much a full-time

job to do so you know I have models out

there that I use in baseball in college

football in college basketball in those

three sports I have been able to create

models that have netted me a long-term

profit but the amount of time and effort

I had to put into those models if I told

you how many man-hours I had to sink

into those you would probably be like oh

man

that is way too much time while my

friends and people my age were out there

you know partying or playing video games

or doing whatever hobby it is they do

I'm sitting here trying to develop my

models to make me money in the long run

the amount of hours it took would blow

your mind it takes a lot of dedication

and most people are not willing to put

in the effort that's the thing it is not

easy if it were easy sports books would

either not exist or the juice they would

offer on their lines would be so high it

wouldn't even be worth betting that's

the reality

it's not easy which brings me to sports

betting truth number three the only way

to profit long term in sports betting is

to have a mathematical analytical

statistical model rooted and measurable

defined and quantifiable statistics that

is the only way I don't care what your

friend says everybody knows that guy who

claims they make money betting on sports

just via their their gut or their

instinct or their hunches or I just I'm

just gonna eyeball on the board and just

picking out winners or you know I I just

study the stats and I watch the games

and I just have I'm just good at picking

out picking out the winners really trust

me that is not a strategy but that's

probably the most common strategy that

people use when betting on sports they

just go with their gut their hunches

they just you know they just study the

stats they watch the games and they're

just knowledgeable you know I'm just

really good at I'm a sports maven I'm a

sports expert I just know that is not a

strategy that will bury you in the long

run it like again I emphasize it might

win you money in the short run it might

win you money in the medium run but over

time you will be ground down into powder

if you go that route I don't care what

your friend says I don't care what you

say that is not a strategy that will win

you money in the long run and know

you're not an exception to the rule

because you're going up against two

forces here you're going up against the

odds makers who are probably smarter

than you

I do analytics for a living and I I know

the sports books are smarter than me I

know the odds makers are smarter than me

and second if the odds makers get it

wrong you're going up against the market

which is more efficient than you they're

very good at correcting oddsmakers

mistakes so you're going up against two

very powerful forces here it's not easy

to be you're not going to beat them just

by

by balling the board my hunches

percentages win money not hunches

if hunches one then how come you have

all these psychics in Las Vegas working

the strip instead of actually going to

the tables and making money it takes a

defined strategy to win in the long run

now I'm not saying I am NOT saying you

need a PhD in statistics or data science

to be able to create models that will

win you money in the long run that's not

what I'm saying but at the very least at

the very least you need basic math

knowledge basic statistical knowledge

and a very basic understanding of excel

functions and/or programming that's what

you need to be in the ballpark to get

started on the path to long-term

profitability

now I'm gonna emphasize this having a

model puts you on a path to long-term

profitability it does not guarantee you

long term profitability which brings me

to sports betting truth number four and

that is there are no guarantees and

sports betting there are no locks there

are no surefire things anyone who says

that there is a guarantee that there is

a lock that there is a surefire pick is

either a tout a shill for touts or an

idiot or all three there are no

guarantees even me with my models that

have won me money there's no guarantee

that those models will continue to win

me money they could all of a sudden stop

winning me money today and I have to go

back to the drawing board a model does

not guarantee that you will win there

are no guarantees and sports betting

that you will win a model simply gives

you a chance to win all the other

strategies will not give you a chance at

all you have a 0% chance of profiting

long term with any strategy other than a

model a model simply gives you a chance

it is like counting cards in blackjack

in blackjack you have basic strategy

which is a table of plays that you make

which minimize the house edge it does

not maximize your return it minimizes

the house edge because even if you play

perfect basic strategy and blackjack the

house still has the edge in their favor

and you will lose in the long run 100%

of the time basic strategy does not win

you money it just minimizes your losses

now the way to have a chance in

blackjack is to count cards but counting

cards does not guarantee you will win it

simply gives you a chance to win in the

long run if you do it right you have a

chance to

any other strategy in blackjack you have

zero chance of winning in the long run

counting cards is the only way you have

a chance having a model in sports

betting simply gives you a chance to win

but you still have to have a model that

works you can have a garbage model that

will lose you money a model does not

guarantee you a win it simply gives you

a chance now with all this in mind how

do you win money in the long run betting

on sports is it even possible now I have

a video titled how to have a chance at

winning at sports betting is it even

possible I suggest you check that video

out now that you know the actual truth

of sports betting the reason I didn't

include that material in this video is

because the point of this video is to

educate everybody about the truths of

sports betting and now that you know the

truth you have the proper mindset to go

forward and learn strategies to have a

chance at winning at sports betting if

it's possible now I hope you found this

video educational and helpful and if you

did hit that like button and hit the

subscribe button now these are the four

hard truths of sports betting that not

many people have a firm grasp of but

it's the reality I guarantee you there's

going to be a lot of people who watch

this video and be like you're wrong I

make money betting on sports and I don't

use a model okay congratulations on

being a massive outlier but eventually

you're going to regress to the mean like

everybody else and be a long-term loser

that does it today for sports betting

truth until next time