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Don't Retire Until You Have $8 MILLION!!! 😂😂



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you now need eight million saved for a

modest retirement jeez my goodness

i love these articles i have not read it

yet i haven't read it yet so we're going

to read it together here a number of you

have sent this to me

oh sean langlois voice whatever that

guy's name is

um i guarantee you all sean's big lip

guarantee i've uh

on occasion i'll follow some of his

posts and uh

anyway so let's read this from market

watch the dateline uh but let's say the

17th day the 18th so yesterday

all right let's see who we got here you

might want to hold off on winnebago

the four percent rule has long been used

as a guideline to determine how much you

should be able to

withdraw from your retirement account

but there's a stark

uh reality check for the man behind the

popular

financial samurai blog oh i did a video

on him

a long time ago um

oh boy all right so let's keep reading

this we'll read that article let's uh

read what market watch says and uh we

might jump into another video for the

financial samurai

i kind of look at the video i did on

that because i took it to task because

it was bad

uh he explained to marketwatch that the

outdated rule was established back

in 1998 by a group of professors at the

time of the 10-year bond yielded five

percent

it did not establish in 1998 dude it was

in 1994 by bill banging come on

i went to dunkin donuts uh he's gonna

say the trinity study well that the

predecessor to the trinity study was

bill bennett at least a credit

a tribute to the right guy that actually

takes me off um

you know bill banging is the author of

the four percent rule

not sorry about my hair i haven't

showered yet haven't shaved haven't done

nothing

not to attribute the right person uh for

the for the uh

the initial thought process a whole idea

of safe withdrawal rates

uh that bothers me quite a bit actually

because you know i talk about my man

uh ty bernicki uh over and i can't

remember but he had written the article

in the journal for financial planning in

uh 2005 about the reality retirement but

he attributed that to

some professors from 1999 off top man i

can't remember their name

who is the first to expose what happens

to retirees as they age that they spend

less

uh so i attributed to tae bernicki who

attributed it to these professors but

either way tiber nicu is the first

person to engage

to get into the mainstream jonathan

clements from the wall street journal

took that and tried to bash ty bernanke

over the head and

look i'm not saying like jonathan

clements was being that punk he was just

saying

well most likely coronavirus most likely

uh

this is a because thai is that because

people are running out of money

unless they consume less just without

any evidence at all it's just

speculation but you know jonathan

clements was the wall street journal

has a british accent so ty bernicki some

dude out of milwaukee wisconsin

who's the uh who are you gonna believe

of course everyone's gonna believe the

british guy from the wall street journal

unfortunately

uh fast forward 15 years and tybernicki

has uh without question been proven

correct

and jonathan clements is now making

money i don't know if he still is

uh being on the board of directors for

uh creative planning making one percent

of

who charges one percent a year i like

creative planning i want to be very

clear

as a registered investment advisor

creative planning is one of the better

ones

by far and away by far and away i have

friends over at creative planning well

what was my friends

who say you're bashing i said no i'm not

i'm not i don't think people should pay

for asset under management fees i think

that you should charge a financial

planning fee

you got to do what you got to do but

that's not gonna make me put my

handcuffs on and say

i don't think people should pay a fee

even if the way you guys are doing it is

right and you what you offer

the end of the day though paying an

asset under management fee is a

significant destruction of wealth to the

clients that

is just is no debate on that you should

not do that

and i will continue to say that as long

as i have a mic

and a bill to talk shaved unkempt or not

anyway so let's go back to this so um

all right here we go so not to attribute

the four percent rule to bill banging

ticks me off

uh and i'm i wonder if that's due to

ignorance and if it's due to ignorance

of

uh how this rule came to be uh i find

that frightening frankly all right

uh so therefore you could withdraw four

percent without any fear

of running out of money uh when you

could earn

therefore of course you could draw four

percent therefore of course you could

draw four percent without any fear of

running out of money

when you could earn one percent more

risk-free okay so you're talking about

the bond average the 10-year bond

average okay gotcha well i agree with

that but

but now that interest rates are hitting

rock bottom man they're just

do these people not know blanchett

weight foul

hell back in 2015 wade fowler was

writing about this saying the 3.2

percent rule

now you can use a 0.5 rule as a safe

withdrawal rate once you've reached

retirement or financial

independence uh he said drawing more

than a few virtual spit takes from

readers the financial

samurai laid out in this table uh five

percent bond yield four percent

uh say withdrawal rate four percent

three point two three percent okay uh

here's a ten year bond right here at

point

well it's actually point seven so point

five six

um the four percent rule in 1998 was

around eighty percent of the ten-year

bond rule so that's what he's still

using he's still

saying the 10-year bond uh if you're

going to use about 80 percent of that

um that's what you get for your ability

to withdraw

all right whatever or you can use 0.5 as

a stretched net worth target to find out

how much net worth and what if i got

that other financial samurai article

from old sean here over at

financial samurai yeah

it was uh i i want to we'll go back to

that let's tell you what hold on just a

second well let's keep reading this then

we'll go back to the article

i did on financial samurai it was about

these people in new york city that's

what it was

um who didn't i remember that now like

okay i don't know if i still have access

it's gonna be tough to find that video

all right let's keep going sorry

ah let's see to find out how much net

worth you need to declare financial

independence multiply your desired

annual expenses by 200 if you want to

live off 40 000 then

then your stretch net worth goal is 8

million

he also took a deep dive into the

numbers in a recent blog post

although the 0.5 rule may sound extreme

it's based on financial reality reality

today

2020 is very different than 1998

inflation is much lower and risk asset

returns will structurally be lower for a

while as well

further you've got to account for a

potential bear market when that's what

the freaking

the whole point about the safe

withdrawal rate already accounts for the

bear market dude

it's already in there

he went on to apply the unsettling rule

to his own situation

and as he's aiming to generate 300 000 a

year in passive income

as two unemployed parents uh amassing 30

million to 40 million net worth

appears next mission impossible however

the four the point five percent rule has

provided a new net worth target to shoot

for

all right that's just stupid all right

for more check out slip blog along with

all the moons and grooms in the comment

section when one reader

pretty much summed it all and said no

never could retire at the 0.5 percent so

why read your red page anymore we just

work till we die

uh this guy's responses that might be

the point to pay for the massive

stimulus

the federal and the central government

want americans to work longer and deport

and pay more taxes all right well

whatever

um let me see if i can't find that

dude's article hold on

that's the whole thing silly let's see

what kind of comments we got here

silly is silly does uh laugh a lot if

you have 8 million why would you

own 10-year bonds well that doesn't i

don't think having 8 million

would discount your ability to own bonds

if he plans to 100 move to 10-year bonds

on the day he retires and his numbers

might make sense of course that'd be

okay uh 8 million divided by 25 years is

320 000 a year exactly

another 30 000 for social security and

be forced to live on only 350 000 a year

um this is like your this is like your

christmas articles of how much you

should tip your doorman

um that's a good way to put my man john

here

says uh 8 million divided by 25 is 325

to 320 000 a year that that's a good way

to look at but you're fake you're not

factoring inflation

who needs 320 000 a year to live on uh

just come on

um eight million effing ridiculous get

out of here yeah that's that's just a

weird

weird this guy um

all right so let's see if i can't find a

critical what is the inflation rate

we're reviewing bond usa

okay let's let's see if i can't find my

art my uh video i did hold on a sec

there's no way i'm going to find that

video because i've done so many and i

i just i can't remember how i titled

this too bad but uh it was about this

new york couple

who who was um i remember the lady was

like working

in the hedge fund or something like that

and i can't remember what it was but

it's just the whole thing was nuts man

if i can find it i'll put a link into

the show notes i'm just not going to

spend

i think i did in july of 2018. hold on

let me go back hold on a second i'm not

gonna

find it there was a uh one video i did

it says i call bs

on this article that might be it but i

just at this stage i have so many videos

to look through them all it takes too

much time so

anyway uh you don't need 8 million bucks

retire this whole 0.5

thing is stupid again remember safe

withdrawal rates

oh my goodness safe withdrawal rate

simply means that is the maximum you

could take out without ever having run

out of money

um why would you ever do that

it doesn't make sense to me i'd love to

hear your comments we'll see you