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hello my name is
Evan Fraser and I work
at the University of Guelph
in Ontario Canada
mostly what I do
is to try and understand
one of the biggest
issues facing our world
over the next 50 years
how can we feed
9 billion people
to start let's consider
two images
the first shows us
how much food
you could buy
for one dollar
on a market in the
African nation
of Zambia in 2008
the second shows us
how much you could buy
on the same
market for one
dollar in 2009
what happened in between
was skyrocketing food prices
a crisis that has thrown
tens maybe even hundreds
of millions into poverty
what's more the
victims haven't suffered
quietly they've rioted
smashed markets and toppled
governments
remember the revolutions
that swept the Middle East
in 2011
they all began
with people in the street
upset over the price
of food
what's more
many of the world's
top agricultural experts
believe that this is
just the tip of the iceberg
unless we figure out
new strategies to deal
with global food
security we may be
entering a new
and dangerous phase
of human history
where food water
and energy shortages
threaten not only
worse poverty
but also civic unrest
and international conflict
there are a number
of reasons for this alarm
the first reason
is that in most years
we produce only
just enough food to
cover our uses
in fact in six of the
last 11 years
we actually consumed
slightly more food
than we produced and
the buffer we take
from one year
to the next
has been steadily falling
so our system already
seems pretty fragile
but it's when we look
into the future
that things grow
very dire indeed
rising populations and
our rich diets
that take a lot more
resources to produce
than they used to
are driving our demand
for food up
and scientists figure
we'll need
50 percent
more food
by 2050
but producing this food
is going to be hard
this is because
the rising demand
is coming precisely
at the same time
as high energy prices
and climate change
are making food harder
and more expensive
to produce
but hidden in these grim
statistics is a
four-part blueprint
we need to follow
but since each of these
strategies is extremely
controversial
each requires careful
analysis
the first strategy includes
science and technology
today a major
scientific hurdle
is to develop technologies
that will help farmers
reach their potential
in terms of the
amount of food
they produce
some scientists figure
we could easily boost
production by 50%
just by deploying
currently available technologies
this is especially
important in regions like
sub-saharan Africa
where many farmers
only produce about 20%
of what they could do
to a lack of good quality
seeds fertilizer
and better equipment
but it's not as if
we can take the seeds
and equipment that
seemed to work
on North American farms
and simply give them
away to African farmers
this doesn't work
because African soils
cultures and communities
are totally different
than in north
america or europe
so scientists must
partner with farmers
to develop locally
appropriate solutions
to local challenges
just using science
and technology
won't be enough however
and this is where
the second strategy
comes in
we must do a better job
at distributing the food
we've got
to develop this strategy
we need to consider
an uncomfortable truth about
today's food system
if you take all the
food on the planet and
divide it equally
by all the people
on the planet
there is plenty
about 2700 calories
per person per day
and 75 grams of protein
per person per day
that's more than enough
but because we feed
a lot of our
food to animals or
turn corn into ethanol
or simply waste
vast amounts
maybe 20 to 50 percent
of the world's food
is wasted
or because the people
who need the food are
poor to afford it
hunger abounds
so we need to establish
ways of making sure
that less food
is wasted and the food
we do have is better
distributed
one way of
doing this is through
ensuring that
international aid organizations
have better access
to food stores
that can be used
as short-term food aid
in times of crisis
third if we want
to avoid a hungry future
we need to make sure we
keep a healthy population
of farms and farmers
around our cities
this means we
need to support local
food systems which
are important because
they stand as a
buffer between individual
consumers and problems
that might occur in global
markets
even if local food systems
do not feed all of us
all the time they are
a critical line of
defence against hunger
fourth none of this will be
possible without stronger
regulation and proactive
government policy
I was confronted with
the need for better
regulation while on a
recent tour of a
feedlot that was licensed
to hold a hundred thousand cows
there I saw a four
hundred and ten thousand
ton pile of manure
that's the weight of
about 35,000 elephants
it was a sad reminder
of the need for
governments to get
serious about promoting
more sustainable farming
of course each of these
four strategies
has its drawbacks
critics of technology
and markets argue
that new technologies
inevitably seem to
enrich corporations
more than help in
humanity or the environment
anti-regulation voices
argue that all
governments ever do
is tie farmers in
red tape and stifle
innovation arguments
for more equitable
food redistribution
causes some to mutter
about the effects
of Big Brother
forcing us all to eat a
uniform diet
but most daunting perhaps
is the argument that
with a world population
poised to reach 9 billion
by mid-century
there will never be
a way for modern communities
to feed themselves
by means of local small farms
our cities are simply
too big
our demands too great
to be able to feed
ourselves without relying
on extremely
intensive farms
but luckily
this isn't a lost cause
take southern Africa in 1992
that year it suffered
the worst drought in a
hundred years
harvest ranked by 1/2
food stockpiles disappeared
and 17 to 20 million people
almost starved
yet apart from in
war-torn Mozambique
there was no real crisis
and the story of how
southern Africa overcame
the drought is a modern
parable for how to feed
nine billion humans
it was the famine
that wasn't and the
reasons for this
are that Africans
adopted the four strategies
proposed here
first before the emergency
local plant breeding
programs introduced
drought resistant varieties
of the crops
that small-scale farmers
traditionally cultivate
this meant that people
had some food
to fall back on when their
main crops failed
also famine early
warning systems
used up-to-date data
and weather forecasts
to alert officials
to the problems months
in advance
meanwhile international donors
adopted proactive
policies like forgiving loans
they also contributed
to food storage centers
close to vulnerable communities
and so food prices
stayed level
as such
local production systems
on which poorer
communities depend bounced
back quickly
the key lesson from
southern Africa in
1992 is that while
all these criticisms
have their points
they aren't universally
applicable and not across
the entire complex landscape
of the 21st century
food system to effectively
tackle the challenges of
feeding the future
the most sensible approach
is to imagine these
four types of solutions as
components of
a well balanced investment
portfolio
one that's resilient
enough to
weather economic storms
is still able to
provide strong
year-over-year returns
and is secure against fraud
and theft
think of new agricultural
technologies
as similar to high-octane
IT stocks
they're an important
part of a
profitable investment strategy
but an over reliance
on them could cost you
your shirt if the market
turns against you
likewise local
food systems are similar
to more modest
rainy-day investments
they can't be
relied upon to feed
everyone all the time
but they're a vital buffer
between consumers
and the dangerous swings
of the international market
and of course every
sound portfolio
includes a cash reserve
in case of emergencies
hence the need
for more mechanisms
to store and distribute food
in times of crisis
lastly one of the lessons
of the present
economic crisis
is that left unregulated
financial institutions
behave badly
in the same way we
need a robust
legal framework
to restrain agriculture
from destroying the environment
the 1992 southern african
drought passed without
excessive hardship
and the agricultural
cycle trundled onwards
historically it
always has one of the
few Old Testament stories
to have a happy ending
was the tale of Joseph
and the Pharaoh's dream
the story recounts
how the Pharaoh
dreamt that seven fat cows
emerged from the Nile
followed by seven thin cows
who followed them
and gobbled the
fat ones up
the pharaoh ended up
listening to joseph
a prisoner in his dungeons
for the correct interpretation
joseph told him
that the seven fat cows
were a good weather report
signifying seven rich years
they would be followed by seven
dry years of no rainfall
whatsoever
to save egypt
from the famine
joseph advised
the pharaoh to tax his farms
store the grain in silos
and prepare for
the rough times ahead
pharaoh took this
advice to heart
and egypt was saved
today stopping the global
food crisis
may seem like
an impossible task
the stakes could not be higher
if we don't change
how the world produces
and distributes its food
then the suffering
and violence of the
past few years will
be repeated but
a thousand times worse
but luckily today
we have climate and
demographic modeling
software that are
far more reliable than
waiting for god
to send a dream
to a monarch
these models are quite
clear the years 2050
eighty are probably
not going to be as
productive as the ones
between 1950 and 1980
but this doesn't
necessarily mean disaster
we can avoid this nightmare
and replace it with
a vision of a world
where no one needs
to starve
we have the solutions
all we need now
is the will to
act on them
what can you do to help
first go to our website
there's more information
about each of the four
strategies and things
you can do to make
a difference locally
and internationally
we'll release an in-depth
video and associated
campaign for each
of the four strategies
over the next year
but we need to know
which you're most interested in
so go to www.feeding9billion.com
and vote on your
favorite topic
then share this
on Twitter and Facebook
send it to your friends
your colleagues
your neighbors your families
and get them to do
the same
our funding will flow
if we have enough demand
and votes to make
the next video
until then thanks
for watching and
good luck
